Business cycle dating committee wiki alberta dating laws
For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the exact months of peaks and troughs.It places particular emphasis on real personal income excluding transfers and on employment, since both measures reflect activity across the entire economy.Two other indicators the committee focuses on-payroll employment and industrial production-remain well below their pre-recession peaks.Indeed, the most recent data indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all. CAMBRIDGE July 17 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an expansion.
Identifying the date of the trough involved weighing the evidence provided by the behavior of various indicators of economic activity.All the major indicators of economic activity were generally flat or declining through September 2001.Real GDP then grew at a substantial rate from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2001 and has continued growing since then.First, personal income, employment, and industrial production were all substantially lower in October and November than in September.Second, the NBER's practice has been to identify the highs and lows of economic activity that are due to the operation of normal economic forces; temporary movements in activity resulting from unusual forces, such as strikes, have been discounted in identifying turning points.